//Bull Run Mechanics – The Engine For Next Wave To $100,000

Bull Run Mechanics – The Engine For Next Wave To $100,000

There have been numerous voices saying the next bull runs won’t be as strong as the last ones. So, let’s crunch the numbers to see what is required to get another bull run like the previous ones.According to Thomas Lee, $1B of new capital into cryptocurrencies, increases the market cap by $25B.We have had 6 bull runs so far, on average at a multiple of 17x. The last one was the result of $34B of new capital infused into cryptocurrencies, making the global market cap go from $45B to $900B.NumberMultiplePeriodYearPriceCorrectionCorrection period19x5 days2010$0.008-$0.080%-210×5 months2010$0.08-$1-30%2 months340x2 months2011$0.07-$30-90%5 months414x3 months2013$15-$213-65%3 months512x2 months2013$139-$1132-85%13 months620x7 months2017$1000-$19,800-70%3 months717x4 months2018$5,800-100,000?-70%5 monthsSource: https://ift.tt/2HWDQdN order to get to $100,000, the market will need to go from $400B to $4,4T. This requires $172B of new money infused into cryptocurrencies. Where will this money need to come from? Here, I have made an approximate overview.Wealthy Families $5B: So far, Rothschild, Soros and Rockefeller with their $3B VC fund are confirmed to be invested in the cryptocurrencies. We can possibly expect $3B from wealthy families to be invested in this bull run.Institutional Money $27B: Here, I’m pasting a comment from u/warrchaser: Cryptocurrencies (not tokens) will heavily disrupt treasury bonds because soon every credit union in america is going to be offering an index cryptocurrency fund. This is what’s going to trigger a bull run that will make our last bull run look small. Baby boomer Mom n Dad are going to walk into their local credit union to talk to their financial advisor and he’s going to offer them a new product that is extremely volatile, however, got a return of about 1000% last year. He’s going to suggest 2-5% of their portfolio would be ok to invest and these coins are going to be insured and they will never have to trade for crypto or make accounts on sketchy exchanges to get them. The writing is on the wall. I have close friends at credit unions going to alot of crypto meetings that they’re not allowed to talk about, Coinbase and Gemini adding crypto Index funds and custodial services. They’re waiting for regulatory green light. As soon as that happens we’ll be measuring crypto marketcap in the trillions, not billions.Here, an additional source from today that underpins this comment: https://ift.tt/2HneKTX $50B: As you know, with each bull run, 80% or probably more of the new owners of cryptocurrencies are complete newcomers.Whales $90B: Yes, 40% of Bitcoin are owned by less than 1600 individuals. Those have cashed out in December and are now waiting to put their money back in to make another 10x on it. They still own $63B worth of Bitcoin and after having cashed out, probably have around $60B in cash on their hands to reinvest in the next bull run.This brings us to the following distribution:Wealthy Families $5BInstitutional Money $27BIndividuals $50BWhales $90BConclusionAs you can see, the next bull run will probably be largely controlled by the whales, as always. However, whales will wait for the first 3 to invest until they put big money back in, so that they don’t have to fight the market.That’s how we’ll probably see Bitcoin go from $9,000 to $100,000. This can happen in the next 6 months. It largely depends on when the whales decide to make a move. However, they will not spend all of their money at once. They have most likely already accumulated cheap Bitcoins with $30B at the bottom over the last months and have another $20B to drive the price slowly from $10,000 to $30,000 spend and the remaining $40B for 200% price hikes within a week like last year.As you might see, this is just an estimate, if anyone knows numbers that can make a better prediction, tell me.However, this makes it clear that a 17x bull run is definitely possible with wealthy families, institutional money, the early majority and our good old whales. It actually looks like whales can make any number of future bull runs happen, because their buying power increases by 17x for every 17x bull run by them selling a portion of their coins.They can’t do it themselves really, because they would pretty much sell to themselves, plus the bull run would only be at a 5x or so. That’s why they need the newcomers to sell their coins to after the 17x has happened, when the majority of newcomers is flooding in at the new ATH. That’s when the whales sell.If you’ve found this post insightful, follow me on my profile for more posts like this one https://ift.tt/2DkvkTt

There have been numerous voices saying the next bull runs won't be as strong as the last ones. So, let's crunch the numbers to see what is required to get another bull run like the previous ones.

According to Thomas Lee, $1B of new capital into cryptocurrencies, increases the market cap by $25B.

We have had 6 bull runs so far, on average at a multiple of 17x. The last one was the result of $34B of new capital infused into cryptocurrencies, making the global market cap go from $45B to $900B.

NumberMultiplePeriodYearPriceCorrectionCorrection period
19x5 days2010$0.008-$0.080%
210x5 months2010$0.08-$1-30%2 months
340x2 months2011$0.07-$30-90%5 months
414x3 months2013$15-$213-65%3 months
512x2 months2013$139-$1132-85%13 months
620x7 months2017$1000-$19,800-70%3 months
717x4 months2018$5,800-100,000?-70%5 months

Source: https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history

In order to get to $100,000, the market will need to go from $400B to $4,4T. This requires $172B of new money infused into cryptocurrencies. Where will this money need to come from? Here, I have made an approximate overview.

  1. Wealthy Families $5B: So far, Rothschild, Soros and Rockefeller with their $3B VC fund are confirmed to be invested in the cryptocurrencies. We can possibly expect $3B from wealthy families to be invested in this bull run.
  2. Institutional Money $27B: Here, I'm pasting a comment from u/warrchaser: Cryptocurrencies (not tokens) will heavily disrupt treasury bonds because soon every credit union in america is going to be offering an index cryptocurrency fund. This is what's going to trigger a bull run that will make our last bull run look small. Baby boomer Mom n Dad are going to walk into their local credit union to talk to their financial advisor and he's going to offer them a new product that is extremely volatile, however, got a return of about 1000% last year. He's going to suggest 2-5% of their portfolio would be ok to invest and these coins are going to be insured and they will never have to trade for crypto or make accounts on sketchy exchanges to get them. The writing is on the wall. I have close friends at credit unions going to alot of crypto meetings that they're not allowed to talk about, Coinbase and Gemini adding crypto Index funds and custodial services. They're waiting for regulatory green light. As soon as that happens we'll be measuring crypto marketcap in the trillions, not billions.Here, an additional source from today that underpins this comment: http://www.tearsheet.co/blockchain-crypto/goldman-sachs-has-hired-a-crypto-trader
  3. Individuals $50B: As you know, with each bull run, 80% or probably more of the new owners of cryptocurrencies are complete newcomers.
  4. Whales $90B: Yes, 40% of Bitcoin are owned by less than 1600 individuals. Those have cashed out in December and are now waiting to put their money back in to make another 10x on it. They still own $63B worth of Bitcoin and after having cashed out, probably have around $60B in cash on their hands to reinvest in the next bull run.

This brings us to the following distribution:

  1. Wealthy Families $5B
  2. Institutional Money $27B
  3. Individuals $50B
  4. Whales $90B

Conclusion

As you can see, the next bull run will probably be largely controlled by the whales, as always. However, whales will wait for the first 3 to invest until they put big money back in, so that they don't have to fight the market.

That's how we'll probably see Bitcoin go from $9,000 to $100,000. This can happen in the next 6 months. It largely depends on when the whales decide to make a move. However, they will not spend all of their money at once. They have most likely already accumulated cheap Bitcoins with $30B at the bottom over the last months and have another $20B to drive the price slowly from $10,000 to $30,000 spend and the remaining $40B for 200% price hikes within a week like last year.

As you might see, this is just an estimate, if anyone knows numbers that can make a better prediction, tell me.

However, this makes it clear that a 17x bull run is definitely possible with wealthy families, institutional money, the early majority and our good old whales. It actually looks like whales can make any number of future bull runs happen, because their buying power increases by 17x for every 17x bull run by them selling a portion of their coins.

They can't do it themselves really, because they would pretty much sell to themselves, plus the bull run would only be at a 5x or so. That's why they need the newcomers to sell their coins to after the 17x has happened, when the majority of newcomers is flooding in at the new ATH. That's when the whales sell.

If you've found this post insightful, follow me on my profile for more posts like this one https://www.reddit.com/user/galan77